ANALYSIS
Hillary’s California victory is big, but not as big as it seems at first glance. Since the states delegates are divided proportionally, rather than winner-take-all, her delegate edge was only somewhere between 20 and 30.
More important to Clinton was her decisive win in Massachusetts. Winning by 15% there in the face of the Kennedy/Kerry endorsements of Obama was very impressive.
On the other hand, Obama ran better in Hillary’s home state, New York, than she did in his Illinois. In addition, Barack held service in neighboring state primaries while Hillary lost Connecticut and Delaware.
One of the most interesting developments is that there were many more one-sided races, in which either Clinton or Obama won by 10 or more percentage points than there were close ones. This indicates that despite the overall delegate margin still being quite close, each candidate inspires strong regional and identity support.
FROM HERE TO THE CONVENTION
Clearly, it is still a horse race for the Democrats, and, although the primaries in Texas and Ohio will be very important, there is a good chance that neither will be decisive, making this the first open convention since Pluto was a pup.
Is this good or bad for the Democratic Party? You can argue either way. The Republican race is settled and boring while theirs is contentious and exciting. Or the Democrats are ripping and tearing while the Republicans have made their choice.
My vote is – advantage Democrats. Despite McCain wrapping up the nomination, there is no unity as long as long as both the economic and social conservatives hate him. And, no, hate is not too strange a description. And even though, as described above, many of the state votes were one-sided, most Democrats like both candidates.
Advantage/disadvantage: Obama has the big bucks, while Hillary is having to loan money to herself. But Clinton has the more solid voting blocks – women, Latinos and the over-55 crowd.
Both sides claim momentum, and it is pretty even. But I give a slight edge to Hillary. The popular vote wins in Massachusetts and California were big.
If Hillary does win, you can forget about Barack on the ticket. There is no way that Mrs. C., so long overshadowed by President Bill, will take a chance on a charismatic running mate.
